Fraud losses in the global banking sector are expected to soar to $58.3 billion by 2030, according to a new report by U.K.-based consultancy Juniper Research.
The study, Fraud Detection & Prevention in Banking Market 2025–2030, projects a 153 percent jump from an estimated $23 billion in 2025, underscoring the growing risks financial institutions face from evolving fraud schemes.
One of the biggest threats identified is synthetic identity fraud—when criminals create fake personas by blending stolen, real and fabricated details. These identities can pass standard checks because they include partial authentic data, making them difficult to detect.
The report said the rise of artificial intelligence is fueling the problem, enabling faster and more convincing fake profiles. “Synthetic identities can stay under the radar for longer and drain more money from banks,” said Lorien Carter, a senior analyst at Juniper. “Institutions must rethink static verification and introduce continuous monitoring if they want to keep pace.”
Banks also face mounting pressure from regulators. Recent fines against Monzo, Barclays and TD Bank for failing to flag high-risk transactions highlight the cost of noncompliance. Regulators in the United States and Europe have warned that penalties for weak oversight will intensify.
Juniper expects banks to sharply increase spending on fraud prevention, with tools ranging from behavioral biometrics—such as typing rhythm or touch patterns—to machine learning systems that spot anomalies in real time.
The research, covering 61 countries and more than 24,600 data points, also ranks 15 leading fraud-prevention providers on a “Competitor Leaderboard,” which provides a visual representation of the competitive positioning of the leaders within a particular market sector.